AAP has released some new numbers this week that point to the trend we saw in previous findings: that print (paperback and hardcover) and audio sales continue to grow while ebook sales continue to decline. See full report here.
As always, when such reports are released, NSR zooms in on ebook numbers. They continue to go down (not up), as we can clearly see, but as we’ve noted previously on this issue, this may actually be a good thing. At least for those who advocate for more affordable access to books online, and especially for those whose advocate free access to books online (beyond libraries). Although disappointing, numbers like this do not confirm that people don’t want to read and access content in digital format. Instead, they confirm that they simply do not want to pay for ebooks, or at least not as much they’ve had to pay thusfar.
Readers are already used to consuming massive amounts of information for free in digital format, and their expectations continue to gravitate in the direction of ‘free’ even when it comes to books (including fiction and all types of nonfiction). One of the reasons we recently launched the Free Content Alert column on NSR was to draw attention to the staggering amount of quality content available online for free downloading and reading. This includes everything from academic monographs and professional literature to indie literature.
If ebook sales continue to decline like this, it just may be the signal publishers need (trade publishers, in particular) to consider at long last experimenting with models other than the one copy/one user model that has been dominating the industry for years and not serving the needs of individual users or libraries.
Publishing has always been reactive to change, rather than proactive in its efforts to transform its ways. Seeing ebook sales decline year after year will not make ebooks go away—their power to eliminate unequal (and unbalanced) access to knowledge (in all forms) is too real to be denied—but it may lead publishers to consider (and reconsider) other options. Or is this exactly where publishers want to remain?—Ed.
Highlights from the findings:
Trends for Trade by Format
In the first three quarters of 2016 vs. 2015
- Paperback books grew 7.5% to $1.62 billion
- Hardback books grew 4.1% $1.73 billion
- Downloaded audio grew 29.6% to $199.2 million
- eBooks were down 18.7% to $877.1 million
Educational Materials and Professional Books
- Educational Materials had a revenue loss of 6.9% for K-12 Instructional Materials and 11.3% for Higher Education Course Materials, in the first three quarters of 2016 vs. 2015.
- Professional Publishing was down 23.6% in the first three quarters of 2016 vs. the first three quarters of 2015. These categories include business, medical, law, scientific and technical books. University presses were down 4.5% in the first half of 2016 vs. 2015.
Overview of September 2016
- September saw a slight increase in total sales for all tracked categories, with growth of 0.7% vs. Sept. 2015. Increases in children & young adult books and religious presses added to the year-to-date growth trend in those categories.
- Higher Education course materials also saw its first increase in some time, with growth of 9.2% vs. Sept. 2015.
- In Sept. 2016, print dominated, and there was a significant bump in downloaded audio of 38.2% vs. 2015 numbers.
- In the growing religious presses category, eBooks bucked the month and year’s trend with slight growth of 2.4%; they’re still down 20.0% year-to-date in the category.
Overview of First Three Quarters in 2016
- For the three quarters of the year, sales in all tracked categories were down 5.8% to $11.13 billion vs. the same nine months in 2015.
- In the first three quarters of 2016, compared to the first three quarters of 2015, trade sales were up 0.6% to $4.99 billion.
